jueves, 6 de diciembre de 2018


Based on my analysis of the reduced light curve of comet 46p, based on 990 measurements, being the world's largest light curve, the preliminary scientific results are: Estimated diameter 0.96 kms, Estimated active surface area ~ 50km2, Water production rate Q (H2O) ~ 10 ^ 29.5 mol sec = 5 tons per second of water, it is observed that ar = 1.25 au, there is a change in the predominant chemical volatility being Q H2O> Q CO +, these results are preliminary, until completing the light curve, and are based on the following scientific references: Sosa, Fdez (2011), Yang (2008), Navarro (2018), MPC / IAU, Cobs.si, Observerscometas yahoogroups.com (Navarro owner).

domingo, 2 de diciembre de 2018


ABSTRACT A preliminary analysis of the visual light curve and ccd of Comet 46P / Wirtanen with 990 visual measurements and ccd obtained from the sources MPC / IAU, COBS database, and observadorescometas yahoogroups.com (Navarro Pina Administrator) is made, being the largest curve of light until the moment of this comet, are determined, the photometric parameters of the comet, absolute magnitude (m0), and rate of increase in brightness or activity index (n), as well as an analysis and revision of the physical parameters, diameter of the nucleus, mass, rate of water production, also the author, studies the correlation between magnitudes ccd (mccd) and visual (m1), finding an increase in time with a difference of 100 days of 4.4 magnitudes, and obtaining the equations [ d (m1-mccd) T-20 = 6.1 mag. ] and [ d (m1-mccd) T-20 = 1.7 mag.] 1. INTRODUCTION AND RESUME Studying the resulting light curve at only 20 days for perihelion, we found, with 990 visual observations and ccd collected from the MPC database and the COBS source, I have also been very helpful in visual observations of the comet. M.Goiato (Brazil) is a regular collaborator of the yahoogroups.com obserdorescometas page, and of S. Yoshida (Japan), a regular collaborator who sends me measurements of comets, thanks to the two astronomers for their collaboration. First of all I decided to perform a joint analysis of the data without differentiating ccd magnitudes and visual magnitudes to obtain the raw data of the photometric parameters being the resulting equation: 1.0 m1 = 13.7 + 5log (d) + 15.7log (R) Since d is the distance comet earth and R the distance comet sun, this equation is based on the classic formula for studying the brightness of comets: 1.1 m1 = m0 + 5log (d) + n log (R) being m0 the absolute magnitude and n the rate of increase in brightness of the comet, the latter contains valuable physical information of the comet. The results indicate an m0 = 13.7 and an index n = 6.3, n indicates that the nucleus of the comet at T-20 days for perihelion contains a high rate of volatile compounds sublimated from the nucleus. Applying the formulas of C.Morris and S.Hanner: 1.2 log Q (H2O) = -n log (R) 1.3 log Q (C2) = -n log (R) **Work in project**

domingo, 25 de noviembre de 2018


This new article in Astrophysical journal is quite consistent with the hypothesis that I have been mentioning for several weeks ... comment on the possibility of being in front of a new type of '' comet '' never observed in our solar system, the explanation is based on It deals with an icy body that has been eons traveling among the stars suffering above all the "erosion" of cosmic rays on its surface, leaving a new type of very reflective ice that has never been observed before in a comet, in this way, we can also Explain the non-gravitational accelerations observed. Abstract 1I/'Oumuamua is the first confirmed interstellar body in our solar system. Here we report on observations of 'Oumuamua made with the Spitzer Space Telescope on 2017 November 21–22 (UT). We integrated for 30.2 hr at 4.5 μm (IRAC channel 2). We did not detect the object and place an upper limit on the flux of 0.3 μJy (3σ). This implies an effective spherical diameter less than [98, 140, 440] m and albedo greater than [0.2, 0.1, 0.01] under the assumption of low, middle, or high thermal beaming parameter η, respectively. With an aspect ratio for 'Oumuamua of 6:1, these results correspond to dimensions of [240:40, 341:57, 1080:180] m, respectively. We place upper limits on the amount of dust, CO, and CO2 coming from this object that are lower than previous results; we are unable to constrain the production of other gas species. Both our size and outgassing limits are important because 'Oumuamua's trajectory shows non-gravitational accelerations that are sensitive to size and mass and presumably caused by gas emission. We suggest that 'Oumuamua may have experienced low-level post-perihelion volatile emission that produced a fresh, bright, icy mantle. This model is consistent with the expected η value and implied high-albedo value for this solution, but, given our strict limits on CO and CO2, requires another gas species—probably H2O—to explain the observed non-gravitational acceleration. Our results extend the mystery of 'Oumuamua's origin and evolution. Published Spitzer Observations of Interstellar Object 1I/'Oumuamua David E. Trilling1,2, Michael Mommert1,2, Joseph L. Hora3, Davide Farnocchia4, Paul Chodas4, Jon Giorgini4, Howard A. Smith3, Sean Carey5, Carey M. Lisse6, Michael Werner4Show full author list Published 2018 November 14 The Astronomical Journal, Volume 156, Number 6

jueves, 8 de noviembre de 2018

Prediction of maximum brightness of comet 46 P/Wirtanen

The recent analysis update of light visual curve based in COBS DATABASE , obtained visual magnitud maximum of m1=+3.5 data 17/ December 2018 , based next photometricals parameters m0=8.9 and activity index n=9.9 this calculations based in classic formula for predicted visual magnitude : m1 = m0 + 5 log ( delta ) + n log ( R )

martes, 21 de agosto de 2018


I analyzed a total of 2725 visual observations of comet 21P / Giacobinni-Zinner, from 1959 to 2018, with a total of 10 steps perihelion, analyzing their photometry the general equation shows the following result, my personal equation is as follows: m1 = +11.5 + 5 log (d) + 11.2 log (R) Photometricals Parameters General of 10 Perihelion Magnitude Absolute m0 = 11.5 Activity Index n = 11.2 (4,5) ICQ Formula m1 = 9.0 + 5 log (d) +15.0 log (R) This is the largest historical series obtained from this comet based on the data offered by MPC / IAU and COBS database International. The residual data obtained by J.P. Navarro Pina, offer greater statistical confidence: +/- 1.70 + 0.000 ---- 2725 Visuals Observations (Navarro Pina 2018) +/- 2.54 +1.82 ------ 2725 ICQ / IAU Navarro Pina has also updated the following physical quantities of the comet 21P / GZ data 2018, Diameter of the core log D (kms) = 0.42 ( 2,0 kms ) , Estimated mass log M (kg) = 11.9, Water rate production max log Q (H2O) ~ 28.5 mol / s-1, in the perihelion . The last updated indicated active are of FA ~ 80 km2 ( based in Ye et al. 2018 ) The photometric-visual parameters obtained for 2018 are m0 = 8.6, n = 8.3, the latter indicates a high rate of volatile chemical components of the nucleus.

Update Analysis Light Curve C/2021 A1 LEONARD A1

 My second analysis of the light curve of comet C / 2021 A1 LEONARD, indicates in T-300, a stagnation in the rate of increase in brightness ...