jueves, 8 de noviembre de 2018

Prediction of maximum brightness of comet 46 P/Wirtanen

The recent analysis update of light visual curve based in COBS DATABASE , obtained visual magnitud maximum of m1=+3.5 data 17/ December 2018 , based next photometricals parameters m0=8.9 and activity index n=9.9 this calculations based in classic formula for predicted visual magnitude : m1 = m0 + 5 log ( delta ) + n log ( R )

jueves, 11 de octubre de 2018

J.P.NAVARRO PINA DISCOVERED THE NINTH NEW ASTEROID 2018 NJ15

"Pseudo-MPEC" for 2018 NJ15 Created 2018 Oct 11 13:39:02 UT using Find_Orb Astrometry Observing stations Orbital elements Residuals Ephemeris Click here to search NEAT images for this object using Skymorph Click here to search DSS2 images for this object using Skymorph Click here to search Spacewatch images for this object using Skymorph Astrometry: K18N15J C2018 07 12.09667 20 24 57.86 -14 37 49.8 20.2 R ~2ifJ954 K18N15J C2018 07 12.09834 20 24 57.74 -14 37 52.2 20.3 R ~2ifJ954 K18N15J C2018 07 12.10507 20 24 57.43 -14 37 53.2 20.3 R ~2ifJ954 K18N15J C2018 07 13.10214 20 24 09.19 -14 45 01.5 20 R ~2ifJ954 K18N15J C2018 07 13.10383 20 24 09.10 -14 45 02.7 20.1 R ~2ifJ954 K18N15J C2018 07 13.11054 20 24 08.77 -14 45 05.1 19.9 R ~2ifJ954 Station data: (954) Teide Observatory (N28.2985 W16.5094) Canary Islands (Spain). Orbital elements: 2018 NJ15 Perihelion 2019 Dec 12.318160 +/- 303 TT = 7:38:09 (JD 2458829.818160) Epoch 2018 Jul 13.0 TT = JDT 2458312.5 Find_Orb M 234.57630 +/- 80 n 0.24244982 +/- 0.115 Peri. 298.74829 +/- 90 a 2.54715162 +/- 0.802 Node 131.31321 +/- 15 e 0.0634008 +/- 0.189 Incl. 13.11708 +/- 8 P 4.07 H 17.0 G 0.15 U 11.3 SR q 2.38565999 +/- 0.434 Q 2.70864324 +/- 1.36 From 6 observations 2018 July 12-13 (24.3 hr); mean residual 0".45 Residuals in arcseconds: 180712 954 .23+ .51+ 180712 954 .08+ .68+ 180713 954 .07- .32- 180712 954 .30- 1.2- 180713 954 .01- .15+ 180713 954 .09+ .17+ Ephemerides for Obs. Astronomico Vega del Thader, El Palmar: Date (UTC) RA Dec delta r elong mag ---- -- -- ------------ ------------ ------ ------ ----- --- 2018 10 12 19 58 51.245 -22 53 16.53 2.2460 2.5939 98.8 21.9 2018 10 13 19 59 39.182 -22 53 56.45 2.2585 2.5933 98.0 21.9 2018 10 14 20 00 28.387 -22 54 29.86 2.2712 2.5926 97.2 21.9 2018 10 15 20 01 18.842 -22 54 56.79 2.2838 2.5920 96.4 21.9 2018 10 16 20 02 10.524 -22 55 17.25 2.2964 2.5914 95.6 21.9 2018 10 17 20 03 03.412 -22 55 31.29 2.3091 2.5907 94.8 21.9 2018 10 18 20 03 57.488 -22 55 38.91 2.3218 2.5901 94.0 21.9 2018 10 19 20 04 52.729 -22 55 40.14 2.3345 2.5894 93.2 21.9 2018 10 20 20 05 49.116 -22 55 35.00 2.3472 2.5888 92.5 21.9 2018 10 21 20 06 46.628 -22 55 23.52 2.3599 2.5881 91.7 22.0 2018 10 22 20 07 45.245 -22 55 05.71 2.3726 2.5875 90.9 22.0 2018 10 23 20 08 44.948 -22 54 41.61 2.3853 2.5868 90.1 22.0 2018 10 24 20 09 45.717 -22 54 11.21 2.3980 2.5862 89.4 22.0 2018 10 25 20 10 47.534 -22 53 34.56 2.4107 2.5855 88.6 22.0 2018 10 26 20 11 50.381 -22 52 51.66 2.4234 2.5849 87.9 22.0 2018 10 27 20 12 54.239 -22 52 02.52 2.4361 2.5842 87.1 22.0 2018 10 28 20 13 59.093 -22 51 07.17 2.4487 2.5835 86.4 22.0 2018 10 29 20 15 04.926 -22 50 05.62 2.4614 2.5829 85.6 22.0 ................

martes, 21 de agosto de 2018

HISTORICAL LIGHT CURVE FROM 1959-2018 COMET 21P / GIACOBINNI-ZINNER

I analyzed a total of 2725 visual observations of comet 21P / Giacobinni-Zinner, from 1959 to 2018, with a total of 10 steps perihelion, analyzing their photometry the general equation shows the following result, my personal equation is as follows: m1 = +11.5 + 5 log (d) + 11.2 log (R) Photometricals Parameters General of 10 Perihelion Magnitude Absolute m0 = 11.5 Activity Index n = 11.2 (4,5) ICQ Formula m1 = 9.0 + 5 log (d) +15.0 log (R) This is the largest historical series obtained from this comet based on the data offered by MPC / IAU and COBS database International. The residual data obtained by J.P. Navarro Pina, offer greater statistical confidence: +/- 1.70 + 0.000 ---- 2725 Visuals Observations (Navarro Pina 2018) +/- 2.54 +1.82 ------ 2725 ICQ / IAU Navarro Pina has also updated the following physical quantities of the comet 21P / GZ data 2018, Diameter of the core log D (kms) = 0.42 ( 2,0 kms ) , Estimated mass log M (kg) = 11.9, Water rate production max log Q (H2O) ~ 28.5 mol / s-1, in the perihelion . The last updated indicated active are of FA ~ 80 km2 ( based in Ye et al. 2018 ) The photometric-visual parameters obtained for 2018 are m0 = 8.6, n = 8.3, the latter indicates a high rate of volatile chemical components of the nucleus.

jueves, 28 de septiembre de 2017

Analysis Light curve C/2017 O1 ASASSN

Analysis of the light curve of comet C / 2017 O1 ASASSN based on 518 visual observations and ccd of Comet Obs yahoogroups.com, observers comets yahoogroups.com, COBS database, LIADA comet database, it is the largest curve of elaborated light of this comet so far, based on this analysis the comet suffered an outburts in R = 1.85 au which carried it at a confirmed rate of 400-500 cms of dust production based on data from CARA database Afp parameter, this outburts, made up 2 magnitudes ccd to the comet with respect to its average magnitude, in the data of visual magnitude I have not found any indication of this outbreak, the ccd data are of value to know the rate of dust production. In T-60 days, the comet suffered an inburts or brake in its rate of increase of brightness that makes it lower 1.5 magnitudes ccd, in the visual data I have not found any indication of this fact either. The brightness brightening curve of the comet is very slight and the comet is most likely not to exceed a maximum visual magnitude of m1 = + 8.5, but there are more bursts of brightness. The calculated physical parameters of this study are based on the formulas given by Sosa & Fdez 2011. Green line : visual Observations , Red line : ccd observations . Periodogran Analysis of 518 observations a search of periodicity of nucleus of comet ( Precession Period )

miércoles, 12 de abril de 2017

NEW ANALYSIS OF LIGHT CURVE OF COMET C/2015 ER61 PANSTARRS

The light curve is dominated by 4 different brightness law settings separated by the red lines, at number 4, the outburts of the comet are observed, estimated in 2 magnitudes, I have made an adjustment of polynomials of degree 1, to adapt The light curve to the 4 different settings.

sábado, 8 de abril de 2017

Analysis of outburts of cometa C2015 ER61

My last analysis of the ccd-visual light curve, reduced magnitude vs log R, shows 2 semicurvatures in the law of brightness of the comet (in R = 5 au and R = 2 au), DJ 550 and DJ 800, something totally new Which he had not seen in a light curve of a comet, with an upper envelope and a lower envelope in the ccd data, coinciding with a modulation in the law of brightness of the comet. My analysis shows a total of 603 ccd and visual observations, the largest light curve of this comet performed, note that the visual observations show greater dispersion and higher brightness, the magnitudes ccd shows greater clustering in the data. Attached link of my last analysis

domingo, 8 de enero de 2017

SPANISH ASTRONOMER DISCOVERED OUTBURST IN COMET 45P/H-M-P

The amateur astronomer and visual observer of comets, J.P.Navarro Pina, has discovered a burst of brightness or outburts in a comet near Earth, the comet in particular is called 45P / HONDA-MRKOS-PAJDUSAKOVA, it is a periodical comet, Whose orbit around the sun is every 5 years, currently this comet should be in visual magnitude +7, but on the night of January 5, 2017, the astronomer Murcia, J.P.Navarro Pina, measured the visual magnitude of the comet in 6, is To say 1 magnitude visual more brilliant than it was in previous nights, the discovery of the outburts by Navarro Pina, has put in alert to the international astronomical community, since now the comet could be visible to the naked eye since Any dark place and to be as bright as the comet Halley in 1986, various observers of world comets have confirmed the explosion of brilliance of the Spanish astronomer, comets, are fragile stars, that are composed mostly by water, dust, and rock, From time to time, some of them break or suffer gas and dust eruptions, causing sudden increases in brightness, which make them more spectacular in the night sky. J.P.Navarro Pina, a veteran astronomer from Murcia, and an observer of comet visuals, with more than 30 years of astronomical observations behind him, specialized in Comets, he has participated and collaborated with different astronomical centers and world observatories with his Measures of comets.Adjunt light visual curve of COBS database .